We are delighted to have been invited to work with BioAgency in France to help collate data about the organic cereal market in the UK. This is the first time we have been asked to do so and will hopefully be an ongoing partnership helping to provide better data about our market. The previous report on the European organic cereal market published in 2019 is below. It is also available in the Organic Market & Stats folder on the portal.
This makes interesting reading as it highlights the EU states producing and consuming the greatest volumes of combinable crops and gives an estimation as to how supply is likely to grow over the next few years. It suggests the UK supply of feed grains will flat-line through until 2025.
Study on organic field crops in the EU and in the main
It is interesting to note that in the organic oat market where we have seen Whites take a positive approach to supporting domestic supply we have seen the supply grow. We need sector or brand to take a similar approach to their feed supply in order to stimulate supply.
The market continues to rebalance following the extraordinary conditions. The conventional futures for old crop are below £200 and for new crop seem to struggle to hold a price at £220 and when they get there they revert back to around the £210.
The organic market has fallen sharply with feed oats and barley trading at below £300 per tonne as one merchant in particular seems to be feeding the market with cheap grain which is making it harder to hold values. There is very little domestic wheat unsold on farm. We sold a fair bit in early April to clear up the majority the our members still had around. There is plenty of imported supply as ever. Hopefully this lack of domestic wheat will make the more conscientious buyers use more barley in their rations and once the cheap seller is done with their cheap supply barley price will creep back over £300.
New crop is difficult to predict at present. The fall in milk price will cap cereal values as the dairy sector cannot afford the sort of prices we have seen this year when milk price is below £0.50 per litre and a further high priced season would have a large impact on demand. At present best guess on new crop cereal values is in the range £320 - £340 but if the conventional market loses further value it will be under additional pressure.